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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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