A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
