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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd